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Merger arbitrage is an investment strategy that seeks to profit from the gap between a target company's current stock price and the acquisition price offered by the acquirer. When a deal is announced, the target's stock typically trades slightly below the offer price — that gap is the spread.
Gross spread — (Offer − Current) ÷ Current. The potential return if the deal closes at the stated price.
Deal break risk, regulatory rejection, competing bids, shareholder votes, and market conditions can all cause spreads to widen or deals to fail entirely.
Gross spread = (offer − current price) ÷ current price — the return if the deal closes at the offer.
Annualized scales that by time to the expected close, so deals closing sooner count for more.
Median is less distorted than the average by a few very wide spreads — which tend to be wide because the market sees higher deal-break risk.
Calculated across active (non-closed) deals with positive spread only — deals where the target trades below the offer price. The "Above offer" count in the distribution shows deals trading above their offer price (CVR premium plays, bidding wars) for context, but these are excluded from mean and median calculations as they do not represent traditional arbitrage opportunities.
Disclaimer: ArbLens is for informational purposes only. Data is sourced from public filings and third-party providers and may be delayed or inaccurate. Nothing here constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
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