ICA clears Zijin/Allied Gold — the first major Chinese acquisition past Ottawa's national security review since 2022. But Beijing's NDRC is now the risk. Plus: STB pauses NSC, AXTA hostile bid rejected, Tiptree closes Fortegra.
57
Active Deals
2.4%
Median Spread
$646B
Total Value
13
Closing <60 Days
This Week's Top Moves
$AAUC+26%
Canada clears Zijin/Allied Gold — first major Chinese acquisition past Ottawa since 2022
Investment Canada Act approval received May 29 — the Canadian-side process is now largely complete for Zijin's C$5.5B acquisition of Allied Gold. The remaining overhang is China-side: the FT reported China's NDRC is questioning the premium Zijin is paying, and geopolitical risk persists. Outside date extended to July 29. The 26% spread reflects Beijing risk, not Ottawa risk.
STB pauses UNP/NSC merger review for the second time
The Surface Transportation Board paused the $85B Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger on May 28, calling the amended application "unclear or underdeveloped." NSC fell 5.4%, UNP fell 4.2%. A coalition of BNSF, CPKC, Teamsters, Farm Bureau, and the American Chemistry Council actively opposes. The formal review hasn't even started — outside date is January 2028.
AkzoNobel rejected a hostile €73/share bid from Nippon + Sherwin-Williams
AkzoNobel disclosed May 27 that it rejected a €73/share all-cash bid from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams — Nippon's second attempt. AKZOY surged 20%. The wide spread reflects deal-termination risk: if Nippon succeeds in acquiring AkzoNobel, the Axalta merger terminates (€150M break fee) and AXTA trades back to standalone value.
Tiptree closed its $1.65B Fortegra sale — now what?
Fortegra closed May 29. Tiptree authorized a $20M share buyback — only 3% of its market cap against $23.80 pro-forma book value. Stock at $18.24, up ~6% since our Special Situations post. The 30% NAV discount persists. The question now is whether management returns the cash or empire-builds.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Data sourced from public filings and third-party sources.