The $110 Billion WBD Deal Closed. A $22.6 Billion One Arrived.
Warner Bros. Discovery, Qorvo, Simulations Plus and BioLife Solutions all completed on Oct 5-6, while Schneider/PTC, Option Care Health, RXO and Pacira joined the tracker. Also: the FTC's clock on UniFirst is now defined, Clear Channel's last approval arrived, a higher bid for Marygold collides with a contract that won't let the board take it, ZIM raised guidance with its approval still unresolved, and the Risk/Reward Top 6 got rebuilt.
71
Active Deals
1.27%
Median Spread
~$553B
Total Value
This Week’s Top Moves
$WBDCLOSED
The ~$110 billion deal is done
Paramount Skydance completed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery on Oct 6, six days after the judge entered the consent decree and lifted the order that had barred closing. The path ran from the Feb 27 agreement through WBD shareholder approval on Apr 23, DOJ approval in June and EU approval in July, to the Sept 21 settlement of the 12-state antitrust suit. Cash consideration was about $31.0167 per share under the Sept 30 announcement ($31.00 plus $0.00277778 for each day after Sept 30). The combined company is named Skydance Corporation (NYSE: SKYD) and carries a total value of about $110B including debt; the settlement commits it to at least 30 theatrical films a year. WBD's roughly $110B leaving the book is most of why our total tracked value fell this week.
Schneider Electric agreed on Oct 5 to buy PTC for $205.00 per share in cash — about $22.6B of equity value and ~$23.7B including debt, a 42.3% premium to the prior close. PTC closed at $192.61 on announcement day. The deal needs approval from a majority of PTC's shares, HSR clearance and CFIUS approval — which the merger agreement makes an explicit closing condition — and the companies expect to close by Q3 2027. There is no financing condition: Schneider has a fully committed $25B bridge loan, to be replaced by roughly €5-6B of new equity and €16-17B of new debt, so a failure to raise permanent funding is not an out. As reported, the initial outside date is April 4, 2027, extendable by up to nine months for antitrust or CFIUS reviews. Schneider's shares sold off on the size and price. With about a year to wait, a ~5% spread annualizes to only around 6%: this is a deal for patient capital, not a yield play.
Cintas's Oct 6 8-K says both Cintas and UniFirst certified substantial compliance with the FTC's Second Request on Oct 2 and agreed with the FTC not to close before Dec 11, 2026 unless the FTC closes its investigation first. Both also finished their Canadian Competition Bureau responses on Sept 29, and Cintas still expects a close before year-end. Dec 11 is a floor, not a forecast: the FTC can clear earlier, negotiate a remedy or sue. A news report, which the companies haven't confirmed, says both sides expect the FTC to seek a remedy, and Bernstein had already cut implied approval odds to about 70% from 85%. Shareholder approval was never the risk; the FTC verdict is the whole story. Our modeled close is Jan 31, 2027, and UNF stays #4 in the Top 6 below.
A higher bid, and a contract that won't let the board take it
Simplify Asset Management raised its non-binding, all-cash offer for Marygold to $2.40 per share on Sept 30, against Madison Dearborn's $2.00. But holders of ~75% of the voting power approved the Madison Dearborn deal by written consent on Sept 25, and Marygold's own Sept 28 8-K says that, with stockholder approval received, the company cannot respond to or accept alternative proposals, or terminate the agreement to pursue one. Simplify calls the board's fiduciary out "illusory" because its window opened and closed before the agreement was disclosed — the view of an interested bidder, but consistent with the company's own filing. The stock trades around $2.01, essentially at the deal price, so the market isn't pricing in the higher bid. A higher price would now take Madison Dearborn raising its offer, the parties agreeing to terminate, or a legal challenge, and none has been reported. The deal also still needs a Schedule 14C information statement, which can't take effect until at least 20 days after it's mailed, so closing isn't imminent.
Clear Channel Outdoor said on Oct 7 that it received CFIUS clearance for the Mubadala Capital acquisition and that all regulatory requirements have now been obtained, with closing expected on or about Oct 14, subject to customary conditions. Holders receive $2.43 per share in cash, and shareholders approved the deal in May. The stock has converged to the deal price, so the spread is gone — and CCO drops out of the Risk/Reward Top 6 after several issues at #1.
ZIM raised its full-year 2026 guidance on Oct 6: adjusted EBITDA of $2.7-3.0B (from $2.0-2.4B) and adjusted EBIT of $1.4-1.7B (from $0.7-1.1B), about 30% and 72% higher at the midpoints, citing strong demand and freight rates. The shares rose but remain roughly 17% below the $35 cash price, because the approval question hasn't moved. Israel's Government Companies Authority ended its review of the original application on Sept 29; a revised deal needs fresh approvals from the ZIM, Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI boards plus a new full application, and Oct 6 was the date by which ZIM could file one. As of this writing we haven't found confirmation that a filing was made; Hapag-Lloyd says it intends to resubmit. Stronger standalone earnings cushion the downside if approval fails, but freight rates can reverse quickly, so they aren't a floor. The outside date is February 2027, extendable to June 2027 if the Authority's approval is the only open condition.
$QRVO — Skyworks completed its acquisition of Qorvo on Oct 5 ($32.50 cash plus 0.960 Skyworks shares per share), about three months ahead of the original timeline after China and South Korea cleared last.
$SLP — Altaris completed its acquisition of Simulations Plus on Oct 6 at $18.50 cash (~$376.8M); the company is now combined with Altaris portfolio company Chemical Computing Group.
$BLFS — Repligen completed its acquisition of BioLife Solutions on Oct 6, one day after BioLife stockholders approved it: $11.25 cash plus 0.1442 Repligen shares per share, ahead of the Q4 guidance.
Added This Week
$PTC — PTC → Schneider Electric. $205.00 cash (~$22.6B equity, ~$23.7B EV), 42.3% premium. By Q3 2027. $OPCH — Option Care Health → CD&R and McKesson. $32.05 cash (~$5.8B EV), ~37% premium; CD&R takes ~51% and McKesson ~49%, with a framework for McKesson to buy CD&R's stake later. H1 2027, per press coverage. $RXO — RXO → C.H. Robinson. $17.25 cash plus 0.0856 CHRW shares per share (~$30.25 implied), 29% premium; holders can elect cash or stock subject to proration (~57% cash overall). H1 2027. $PCRX — Pacira BioSciences → Viatris. $36.50 cash by tender offer (~$1.65B equity). By the end of 2026.
Two notes on mechanics. RXO's stock leg means its spread moves with C.H. Robinson's share price as well as deal risk. And PCRX is a tender offer with no financing condition, so it could close before year-end once more than 50% of shares are tendered and the HSR waiting period expires. Option Care's shares jumped to near the offer on the news, which is why its spread is thin.
Also This Week
$ACVA — Copart extended its tender offer to Oct 15, and ~52.84% of shares were tendered as of Oct 7, above the 50% minimum. The HSR waiting period expires Oct 13.
$ATKR — stockholders approved Prysmian's $95 cash deal on Oct 7. A conditional notice to redeem $400M of Atkore notes on Oct 19 suggests the parties are targeting a close around then; no closing date has been announced.
$LFCR — terms are now confirmed: CVRs worth up to $160M in total ($30M for 2028, $45M for 2029, $85M for 2030), a go-shop that ends Oct 28, and a close guided to the end of Q4.
$DSGR — LKCM Headwater's escrow issuer priced an upsized $800M offering of 10% notes due 2032. The offering closes Oct 15; that is the bond settlement, not the merger closing, and the stockholder vote is still ahead.
$AXTA — an EU conditional approval is anticipated but not granted. AkzoNobel and Axalta met EU officials Oct 7 and plan to file a remedy proposal, reportedly a divestiture in automotive refinishing, which would push the Oct 22 decision deadline out by about 10 working days.
$LXP, $VREX, $VGZ — LXP votes Oct 26 and Varex Oct 28. Vista Gold's December vote needs 66⅔% of votes cast, a higher bar than most US deals.
$IRDM — RKLB closed Oct 9 at $68.21, just above the $67.50 collar floor, so the $54.00 nominal value is protected again; the cushion is only about 1%.
$IMXI, $BHF — IMXI's spread narrowed to ~26% from ~39% a week ago, and BHF's widened to ~44%. We found no new filing behind either move.
Binary Events on the Calendar
Oct 13 — $ACVA HSR waiting period expires. The tender offer expires Oct 15.
Oct 14 — $CCO closing expected (on or about).
Oct 15 — $BZH vote; $SMTI HSR waiting period expires. $IRDM's FCC comments are due the same day.
Oct 19 — $PERF EGM. Insiders control the vote. $ATKR's note-redemption date, which implies a close around then.
Oct 21 — $ITGR vote.
Oct 22 — $AXTA EU decision deadline, likely extended by about 10 working days once remedies are filed.
Oct 26 — $LXP vote. Oct 27: $MG go-shop expires. Oct 28: $LFCR go-shop ends and $VREX votes.
Oct 29 — $MKTX shareholder vote and HSR expiry.
Nov 10 — $IMXI outside date.
Nov 18 — $NSC protests and comments due at the STB.
Dec 11 — $UNF earliest possible close, unless the FTC closes its investigation sooner.
Top 6 by Spread — October 11, 2026
Ticker
Deal
Spread
Key Risk
$BHF
Aquarian / Brighthouse
44.2%
Delaware still examining Aquarian's funding; Dec 6 outside date
$IMXI
Western Union / Intermex
26.3%
California DFPI still suspended; Nov 10 outside date
$UNF
Cintas / UniFirst
19.3%
FTC verdict; nothing closes before Dec 11
$ZIM
Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM
16.7%
Original application ended; new filing and fresh review needed
$NSC
Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern
15.5%
Survived, not approved; STB review runs into 2027
$IRDM
Rocket Lab / Iridium
13.8%
FCC review pending; collar cushion is thin
Top 6 by Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
#
Ticker
Why
Gross Spread
Annualized
#1
$PERF
~81.2% of voting power under support agreements; EGM Oct 19; self-funded.
4.2%
~19%
#2
$GSAT
Majority consent delivered, HSR and Australia cleared; the FCC order is a slow gate, not a binary one.
7.4%
~10%
#3
$IRDM
Vote done, financing in place, HSR expired; FCC pending. The collar cushion is thin.
13.8%
~19%
#4
$UNF
Vote done and FTC compliance certified, but a remedy is reportedly expected and a suit is a live downside.
19.3%
~63%
#5
$IMXI
Largest number in the group (short modeled duration); DFPI still open.
26.3%
~320%
#6
$BHF
Delaware scrutiny of Aquarian's funding; Mubadala backstop; Talcott letter is interest only (short modeled duration).
44.2%
~288%
Annualized figures use ArbLens's modeled expected close, not a deal's outside date or next catalyst, and aren't probability-weighted. Changes this week: $CCO drops out (all approvals received, closing expected Oct 14, spread gone), $IRDM enters at #3, and $PERF and $GSAT move up to #1 and #2. $WBD, $QRVO, $SLP and $BLFS have closed. $ZIM and $NSC remain excluded: ZIM for binary political risk, NSC for its long timeline.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Data sourced from public filings and third-party sources. Spreads shown are as of October 11, 2026 and update nightly on arblens.com.