The IMXI Spread Doubled in a Week. Two More Deals Drew Second Requests.
A report on California’s regulator sent Intermex down 19% and its spread from 26% to 55%. The FTC and DOJ issued Second Requests on Sanara/MiMedx and LCI/Patrick, MISTRAS trades 5% above its offer, and Rocket Lab’s slide pushed Iridium’s deal below its collar. Also: CCO and ACV Auctions closed, four new deals joined the tracker, and the Risk/Reward Top 6 was rebuilt.
73
Active Deals
1.84%
Median Spread
~$575B
Total Value
This Week’s Top Moves
$IMXI55.3%
A report tied California’s pause to new leadership, and the stock fell 19%
On Oct 12, a CTFN report, cited by Seeking Alpha, said California’s suspension appeared not to be mainly about matching the concessions New York obtained, and linked the review instead to new leadership at the agency and a possible broader change in how California reviews deals. It pointed to Rohit Chopra, the former CFPB director and FTC commissioner, who was sworn in on July 1 as Secretary of California’s new Business and Consumer Services Agency, which oversees the DFPI, and suggested the review could reflect his views on consolidation in consumer finance. The report did not say whether California is seeking concessions or aiming to block the deal, and neither company responded to CTFN’s requests for comment. We found no DFPI comment on the report. Intermex closed down 14% that day ($12.67 to $10.87) and kept sliding to $10.26 by Friday, down 19% on the week; the spread went from about 26% to 55%. One timing detail stands out: the DFPI extended its approval on July 31, a month after Chopra took office, then suspended that extension on Aug 13, 13 days later, citing the six months since the original approval and a need to examine the effect on California operations (Western Union 8-K). Nothing in the companies’ filings has changed since the Oct 2 8-K: the HSR notification was refiled (new 30-day period to about Nov 1, early termination requested), California’s approval remains suspended with no reinstatement timeline, and the outside date is Nov 10 (one outlet cited Nov 6, which we could not confirm). Western Union has repeatedly said it remains committed. Intermex’s Q2 revenue fell 18.6% to $131.2M, so the downside if the deal breaks is real. IMXI drops out of the Top 6 below; a 55% spread already prices a high chance of failure, and the date it needs California to act by is 23 days away.
The FTC asked for more, on the day the clock was due to run out
Sanara MedTech and MiMedx each received an FTC Second Request on Oct 15, the day the waiting period from their Sept 15 refiling was due to expire. The waiting period now runs until 30 days after both sides substantially comply, which typically takes months. The FTC has not said which markets concern it, and the filings gave no revised timeline; the companies’ year-end target now looks hard to meet. The agreement’s end date is July 29, 2027, extendable to Jan 29, 2028 for antitrust, and shareholders already approved on Sept 30. The spread went from about -0.7% to 5.8% in a week. At $33.00 cash plus 0.4735 MiMedx shares, it also moves with MDXG. Our modeled close moves to June 30, 2027.
The DOJ issued a Second Request to both LCI Industries and Patrick Industries on Oct 9, disclosed Oct 13, after the companies withdrew their first HSR filing on Sept 4 and refiled on Sept 9. The waiting period now runs until 30 days after both comply, not 30 days from Oct 9, and the DOJ has not said what concerns it. The deal is a merger of equals between two leading RV component makers at a fixed 1.2440 Patrick shares per LCI share (~$2.9B), with a $94.2M termination fee either way. The LCI vote is Nov 18. The reported March 30, 2027 outside date will likely need an extension, and we moved our modeled close to Sept 30, 2027 from June 30. A gross spread of only 0.9% leaves little cushion if the timeline slips or the DOJ asks for a remedy.
MISTRAS closed Friday at $21.53 against H.I.G.’s $20.35 cash price, up 4.2% that day on volume about 48% below average and with no company announcement. No competing proposal has been disclosed. The structure explains the premium: the go-shop runs to 11:59pm ET on Oct 27; the termination fee is low (about $27.5M, roughly 4% of equity value, halved if a go-shop bidder wins); the premium was thin at 8% to the 30-day and 13% to the 90-day average; the voting agreements cover about 24-31% of shares and typically fall away if the company terminates for a superior proposal, so they do not block a topping bid; and several plaintiff firms are investigating the price. As a rough illustration only, if a $24-25 bid were the alternative, a $21.50 price implies about a 25-30% chance of one. If nothing appears by Oct 27, the base case is the price drifting back toward $20.35. A negative spread is a bet on a topping bid, not a return from the deal.
Rocket Lab fell through the floor, and the collar stopped protecting Iridium holders
Rocket Lab delayed Neutron’s first launch to 2027, and RKLB fell eight straight sessions (about -32%) to $50.84 on Friday, far below the $67.50 collar floor. Below the floor the ratio is fixed at 0.4000 shares, so deal value is about $47.34 ($27.00 cash plus 0.4000 x $50.84) rather than the $54.00 nominal, and it now moves $0.40 for every $1 in RKLB. Against an Iridium price near $43.76 that is an 8.2% spread, about 12% annualized, much smaller than the $54.00 headline implied. The approvals are unchanged: shareholders approved (99.6%), HSR expired and financing is in place, with the FCC comment period running (oppositions Oct 30, replies Nov 9). A recovery above $67.50 would restore the $54.00. IRDM stays #3 in the Top 6, but the downside cushion that made it a low-risk, long-wait setup is gone.
A revised offer, still not filed, and a holder group asking for a vote
Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO detailed the revised proposal on Oct 12-13: an added route to Asia, a new modern fleet for ZIM Israel, investment in Israeli maritime personnel and stronger Golden Share protections, with synergies he put at up to €500M a year. But he said the full details will go to Israeli authorities “over the coming weeks,” so a formal new application has not been confirmed, and the original one has been closed since Sept 29. A shareholder group holding more than 10% of ZIM has also called for a fresh vote if the revised structure is materially different from the one approved in April; that demand does not by itself establish that a new vote is legally required. Trade press says a late-2026 close looks increasingly optimistic, and our modeled close remains June 30, 2027. Stronger standalone earnings (guidance raised Oct 6) cushion the downside but are not a floor.
$CCO — Mubadala Capital, with TWG Global, completed its ~$6.2B acquisition of Clear Channel Outdoor on Oct 14, on the date the company guided to a week earlier, after CFIUS cleared on Oct 7. Holders received $2.43 in cash and the stock was delisted from the NYSE.
$ACVA — Copart completed its acquisition of ACV Auctions on Oct 16. The tender offer expired Oct 15 without a third extension, with about 68.43% of shares tendered (up from 52.84% a week earlier) and the HSR period expired Oct 13; the back-end merger followed on Oct 16 at the same $10.50 in cash.
Added This Week
$BMBL — Bumble → Ithaca Holdings. $6.05 cash per Class A share (~$1.3B), a ~138% premium to the unaffected close. Blackstone’s and founder Whitney Wolfe Herd’s affiliates delivered a written consent right after signing, so approval is already locked and no vote will be held; HSR and a Schedule 14C waiting period remain. No company close guidance; our estimate is Q1 2027. $VRNS — Varonis → Proofpoint (Thoma Bravo). $49.75 cash (~$6.3B), a 52% premium to the pre-rumor price. A $423.3M reverse termination fee backs the buyer, about twice Varonis’s own $211.7M fee. H1 2027. $CCC — CCC Intelligent Solutions → GTCR-led consortium including Elliott. $7.75 cash (~$6.1B EV), ~44% premium to the unaffected July 9 close, committed financing and no financing condition. Q1 2027. The termination fees and outside date were not in the public documents we read. $PAG — Penske Automotive → Penske Corp. and Mitsui. $212.00 cash (~$16.3B EV), up from a $210 proposal in July. The buyers already own about 72%, so the deal needs a majority of all shares and a majority of the unaffiliated votes cast. Q1 2027.
We also looked at FF EAI Robotics and left it out: it is an issuer buying a business with its own shares, so there is no cash price to arbitrage.
Also This Week
$KVUE — the European Commission cleared Kimberly-Clark’s acquisition on Oct 13 in Phase I after it agreed to sell all of its EU feminine hygiene brands (Kotex, Camelia, Record) to Dilek Grup. China’s SAMR and a separate EU subsidies review remain, with a Q4 2026 target. The spread is about 0.2%.
$TXNM — New Mexico PRC hearing examiners declined on Oct 16 to investigate the $400M stock sale to Zimmer Partners (the PRC says Zimmer acted independently of Blackstone) and let the merger application be refiled to show the sale was unwound. The case can now proceed, with a status conference the week of Oct 19 to set a merits-hearing schedule. The decisive state approval is still ahead, and the attorney general and consumer advocates are urging rejection.
$VAL — Brazil’s CADE approved the Transocean combination without restrictions on Oct 13. Once the decision becomes final after a 15-day waiting period, the last regulatory condition is met; closing is guided to Q4 2026.
$LNTH, $ROKU — Lantheus holders approved the Curium merger on Oct 14 with about 97% of votes cast in favor, and Roku holders voted to adopt the Fox merger the same day. The DOJ review is Roku’s remaining gate.
$FSRL — all regulatory approvals are in and both shareholder votes passed (reported Oct 15); only customary conditions remain.
$SYNA — the $123.00 cash deal now has details on file: an unnamed strategic bidder (“Party A”) prompted the revised terms, financing is committed ($2.45B from Morgan Stanley), and the outside date is June 25, 2027 with automatic extensions.
Binary Events on the Calendar
Oct 19 — $PERF EGM. About 81% of the vote is locked up under support agreements. $ATKR’s note-redemption date, which implies a close around then.
Week of Oct 19 — $TXNM PRC status conference to set the merits-hearing schedule.
Oct 21 — $ITGR vote. Oct 22: $AXTA EU decision deadline, likely extended about 10 working days once remedies are filed.
Oct 26 — $LXP vote.
Oct 27 — $MG go-shop ends (11:59pm ET). Oct 28: $LFCR go-shop ends and $VREX votes.
Oct 29 — $MKTX shareholder vote and HSR expiry.
About Oct 30-31 — $VAL CADE decision becomes final, meeting the last regulatory condition.
About Nov 1 — $IMXI new HSR period ends. Nov 10: outside date; one outlet cited Nov 6.
Nov 18 — $LCII LCI shareholder vote; $NSC protests and comments due at the STB.
Dec 11 — $UNF earliest possible close, unless the FTC closes its investigation sooner.
Top 6 by Spread — October 18, 2026
Ticker
Deal
Spread
Key Risk
$IMXI
Western Union / Intermex
55.3%
California DFPI still suspended, and a report suggests it may not be quick to cure; Nov 10 outside date
$BHF
Aquarian / Brighthouse
46.5%
Delaware still examining Aquarian's funding; Dec 6 outside date
$UNF
Cintas / UniFirst
21.7%
FTC verdict; nothing closes before Dec 11
$ZIM
Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM
19.8%
Revised application not yet filed; a >10% holder group wants a vote
$NSC
Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern
15.6%
Survived, not approved; STB review runs into 2027
$GSAT
Amazon / Globalstar
9.2%
FCC review (about day 132) and international approvals; slow, not binary
Top 6 by Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
#
Ticker
Why
Gross Spread
Annualized
#1
$PERF
~81.2% of voting power under support agreements, above the two-thirds needed; EGM Oct 19; self-funded.
3.1%
~15%
#2
$GSAT
Majority consent delivered, HSR and Australia cleared; the FCC order is a slow gate, not a binary one.
9.2%
~13%
#3
$IRDM
Vote done, financing in place, HSR expired; FCC pending. The collar floor is breached, so value now moves with RKLB.
8.2%
~12%
#4
$CZR
Vote done; a long but defined path through the FTC Second Request and state gaming approvals.
7.6%
~17%
#5
$UNF
Vote done and FTC compliance certified, but a remedy is reportedly expected and a suit is a live downside.
21.7%
~75%
#6
$BHF
Delaware scrutiny of Aquarian's funding; Mubadala backstop; Talcott letter is interest only (short modeled duration).
46.5%
~345%
Annualized figures use ArbLens's modeled expected close, not a deal's outside date or next catalyst, and aren't probability-weighted. Changes this week: $IMXI drops out (a 55% spread already prices a high chance of failure, and the report on California raised the risk), $CZR enters at #4, and $UNF moves to #5. $CCO and $ACVA have closed. $ZIM and $NSC remain excluded: ZIM for binary political risk, NSC for its long timeline.
If you find ArbLens useful, consider sharing it with at least one person who might benefit — a fellow investor, analyst, or anyone who follows M&A. It’s free, and word of mouth is how this community grows. arblens.com
Real-time deal alerts, spread movements, and analysis as they happen — follow @ArbLens between issues.
Get weekly merger arb insights delivered to your inbox — spreads, regulatory updates, and what to watch next.
For informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Data sourced from public filings and third-party sources. Spreads shown are as of October 18, 2026 and update nightly on arblens.com.