The FTC Reportedly Plans to Sue Over UniFirst. Nine New Deals Joined the Tracker.
This issue covers the two weeks since Issue #24 (Oct 19 to Nov 1). Semafor and Reuters reported that the FTC has indicated it will sue to block Cintas-UniFirst, and UNF fell about 10% in a day. LCI’s board turned down Monomoy’s $101 cash bid, MISTRAS’s go-shop ended with no bidders, and an activist is campaigning against the IRT-Centerspace deal. Six deals closed, nine joined the tracker, and the Risk/Reward Top 6 was rebuilt.
76
Active Deals
1.42%
Median Spread
~$630B
Total Value
The Past Two Weeks’ Top Moves
$UNF27.4%
The FTC reportedly indicated it intends to sue to block, and the stock priced it in
On Oct 27, Semafor (picked up by Reuters) reported that the FTC has indicated to Cintas it will sue to block the ~$5.5B UniFirst deal, citing people familiar with the matter. The commission has not voted, no formal “last-rites” meeting has been held, and an FTC spokesperson said any decision “will not be communicated through the press.” FTC staff have privately expressed concerns about the companies’ combined market share.
UNF fell about 10% that day, to close near $250 from about $280; it had been in the low-to-mid $280s (about $281 on Oct 23). The gross spread widened from roughly 17% to about 27%: the deal’s implied value was about $321 ($155 cash plus 0.7720 CTAS shares) against a $250 close.
Shareholders approved on June 11 (over 99% of votes cast). Both sides certified substantial compliance with the Second Request on Oct 2 and entered a timing agreement not to close before Dec 11, 2026 unless the FTC gives earlier written notice that it has closed its investigation. The merger agreement carries a $213.3M termination fee payable by UniFirst and a $350M fee payable by Cintas to UniFirst, each in specified circumstances (both are in the companies’ filings). Press coverage says the Cintas fee is owed if the deal is terminated on antitrust grounds and that an FTC lawsuit alone does not trigger it. The agreement’s termination date is reported as Jan 10, 2027, with automatic extensions of up to eight months under specified conditions.
A settlement with remedies or a decision not to sue remains possible. Follow-up reporting on Oct 29 (Capitol Forum, relayed by traders, and CTFN) indicated that the FTC had not formally told Cintas it plans to sue, that staff were still examining the deal and preparing a recommendation for the Bureau of Competition’s front office, that no remedies had been offered, and that the parties were working “constructively” with the FTC and still expected to close before year-end, subject to the Dec 11 timing agreement. The spread narrowed somewhat on those reports. UNF is #6 in the Top 6 below.
A board turned down $101 in cash, and the stock still trades near it
On Oct 28, LCI disclosed an unsolicited, non-binding $101 per share cash proposal from Monomoy Capital Partners, against its signed all-stock merger with Patrick (1.2440 Patrick shares per LCI share). On Oct 30, LCI’s board unanimously determined that the proposal is not superior and reaffirmed the Patrick merger, saying it substantially undervalues LCI and citing a standalone discounted-cash-flow midpoint above $150 per share. Monomoy’s proposal had no financing condition and cited more than $3.0B of available capital, but it did not include debt or equity commitment letters. The market has moved: Patrick rose from $69.49 to $77.59 over Oct 28-30, lifting the Patrick deal’s value to about $96.5 per LCI share, and LCII closed at $99.26, about 3% above that and 2% below Monomoy’s $101. The companies say the merger is on track for the first half of 2027 with about $150M of annual net cost synergies. The LCI vote is Nov 18, the DOJ Second Request (Oct 9) is still open, and a no-vote would reopen the cash alternative. Treat LCII as a vote and bidding situation, not a standard spread.
Nine days to the outside date, and no word from California
There has been no company filing since the Oct 2 8-K. Intermex fell to $9.10 on Oct 30 from $9.30 a week earlier, a spread of about 75%. Intermex’s own 10-Q confirms the outside date is Nov 10: after that, either party may terminate if California’s DFPI has not reinstated its approval, and extending the date would take a signed amendment, which has not been announced. The refiled HSR waiting period was set to run to about Nov 1. Western Union has said it remains committed to closing promptly after reinstatement, and Intermex’s Q2 revenue fell 18.6%. On Oct 12, a CTFN report tied the California pause to new agency leadership; neither company has commented. IMXI stays out of the Top 6: a binary date nine days away with no reinstatement timeline is not a risk-adjusted setup.
The go-shop expired at 11:59pm ET on Oct 27 with no alternative proposals. MISTRAS’s adviser Baird contacted or was contacted by 122 parties (24 strategic companies and 98 financial sponsors), and 40 signed confidentiality agreements. The stock, which had traded 5.8% above H.I.G.’s $20.35 cash price on hopes of a topping bid, fell back to $20.18, about 0.8% below the offer. The no-shop is now in force, subject to fiduciary-out exceptions. The proxy is filed and the vote is Nov 24, with closing expected in late 2026 or early 2027. What is left is an ordinary cash deal.
A negative spread, and a buyer-side vote with an activist against it
Centerspace holders get a fixed 3.800 Independence Realty Trust shares per share, which IRT called its best and final offer after four proposals ($55.14 per CSR share at IRT’s $14.51 on Oct 2). Both companies’ special meetings are Nov 10, and both votes are required, including IRT shareholders approving the share issuance. Irenic Capital, which owns about 2% of IRT, is publicly opposing the deal, calling it inferior to selling IRT and saying an offer of $18 to $20 per IRT share would draw substantial support. Centerspace’s advisers put its own value at about $67 per share, a figure Irenic treats with skepticism because a June strategic review drew 19 confidentiality agreements but no fully financed bid. CSR trades about 4% above the ratio value, so the stock is pricing the risk that IRT holders vote no, or that a higher bid emerges, rather than earning a deal spread. The parties expect to close as early as the end of Q4 2026.
JPMorgan, upgrading BHF to neutral on Oct 15, said the stock reflects the higher risk that the Aquarian deal does not close on its original terms, through a further extension or a change in price, and that for the Dec 6 outside date to be met the Delaware regulator would have to file a notice of public hearing by early November. As of Oct 30 we found no such notice. BHF fell about 4% on the week to $43.79 and the spread widened from 54% to 59%, with no discrete news behind it. The path is otherwise unchanged: Delaware is still examining Aquarian’s capital sources and post-deal plans, Mubadala’s ~$3B is described as a committed backstop, shareholders approved in February, and the Sixth Street/Talcott letter is interest only. The same note referred to another potential buyer, with a prior offer reported at about $52 per share, and to the possibility that neither deal materializes. If the deal has not closed by Dec 6, either party may terminate.
$ATKR — Prysmian completed its acquisition of Atkore on Oct 19 at $95.00 cash (~$3.8B EV), the date implied by Atkore’s Oct 8 note-redemption notice.
$BZH — Dream Finders completed its acquisition of Beazer Homes on Oct 20 at $33.50 cash (~$2.2B EV), five days after holders approved (21.5M shares for, 12,898 against).
$ACA — CRH completed its acquisition of Arcosa on Oct 23 at $150.00 cash (~$8.5B EV), months ahead of the original first-quarter 2027 guidance.
$PERF — the take-private became effective on Oct 23 at $2.00 cash, four days after a vote with about 99.99% of votes cast in favor. It had been our #1 ranked deal.
$NATH — Smithfield completed its acquisition of Nathan’s Famous on Oct 26 at $102.00 cash, three days after the vote.
$WEAV — Francisco Partners completed its acquisition of Weave on Oct 26 at $7.40 cash (~$650M).
Added Since Issue #24
$SGRY — Surgery Partners → HealthSpan Partners (a Bon Secours Mercy Health affiliate). $23.50 cash (~$5.7B EV), a ~49% premium; Bain Capital (~39%) signed a support agreement and is rolling over. Q1 2027. $RRC — Range Resources → EQT. All-stock at 0.987 EQT shares per share (~$12.8B equity, ~21% premium). Range owes a $423M fee and EQT $1.148B. Q1 2027. $QGEN — QIAGEN → EQT Private Equity. €46.50 cash tender offer (~€9.6B), a 40.3% premium, needing 50% plus one share. Mid-2027. The offer is in euros while QGEN trades in dollars, so currency moves affect the spread. $BRZE — Braze → Salesforce. $47.50 cash (~$5.66B EV), a ~58% premium. Salesforce fiscal 2028. $MFIC — MidCap Financial → Ares Capital. $10.88 per share (about $1.21 cash plus ~$9.67 in ARCC stock), a 30% premium but about 85% of MFIC’s NAV; the stock leg is anchored to ARCC’s NAV. First half of 2027. $ULBI — Ultralife → EnerSys. $16.00 cash tender offer (~$320M EV), a 166% premium; holders of about 40% signed support agreements. Q1 2027. $CART — Instacart → DoorDash. $65.00 in cash and stock (~$17B), with stock capped at 25% of the consideration. Two direct competitors, so antitrust is the main risk; late 2027 or early 2028. $ADT — ADT → Thrive Holdings. $10.00 cash (~$15.3B EV), financed entirely by Apollo-managed funds, with a $473M reverse termination fee. A go-shop runs to Nov 28. Q1 2027. $BLHK — blueharbor bank → TowneBank. $12.70 cash plus 1.0534 TowneBank shares (~$154M). It trades on the OTCQX with thin volume, so the displayed spread is indicative. Q1 2027.
The two largest by size, CART and ADT, have very different profiles: ADT trades within 1% of its price with an open go-shop, while CART trades about 13% below its value because the market expects a long antitrust fight.
Also Since Issue #24
$LNTH — the FTC issued Second Requests to Lantheus and Curium on Oct 21, the last day of the refiled HSR waiting period. The waiting period now runs until 30 days after both comply; the companies still guide to the first half of 2027. Holders approved on Oct 14.
$AXTA — AkzoNobel and Axalta filed EU remedies on Oct 15, pushing the Commission’s Phase I deadline into early November, and said they plan to divest AkzoNobel’s European vehicle refinish business and Axalta’s North American wood business (under €500M of combined revenue). They say no other remedies were requested and the merger is on track for early 2027.
$LXP, $CBZ, $ITGR — all three won shareholder approval: LXP (more than 99% of votes cast; closing expected Nov 2), CBIZ (39.2M for, 1.18M against; closing reported for about Nov 2) and Integer (99.95% of shares voted; close by year-end).
$PCRX — Viatris launched its $36.50 cash tender offer on Oct 30; it expires at 11:59pm ET on Nov 16 unless extended.
$DSGR — DSG completed its own GradeEight acquisition on Oct 26. The $35.00 take-private by LKCM Headwater (which owns about 79%) still needs both a majority of all shares and a majority of disinterested votes.
$VAL — Transocean and Valaris shareholders vote Nov 24, the Bermuda court sanction hearing is Nov 26, and completion is expected on or about Dec 1.
$IRDM — RKLB closed at $54.39, still below the $67.50 collar floor, so deal value is about $48.76 and the spread 8.6%. Iridium reported Q3 revenue of $245.7M, up 8%.
Binary Events on the Calendar
About Nov 2 — $LXP and $CBZ closings expected.
Early November — $BHF Delaware hearing notice, which JPMorgan says is needed for the Dec 6 date. Also the $AXTA EU Phase I decision.
Nov 5 — $LCII Q3 call.
Nov 10 — $IMXI outside date. Same day: the $CSR and IRT shareholder votes.
Nov 13 — $UTZ shareholder vote.
Nov 16 — $PCRX tender offer expires (11:59pm ET).
Nov 18 — $LCII shareholder vote on the Patrick merger; $NSC protests and comments due at the STB.
Nov 24 — $MG stockholder vote; $VAL shareholder votes. Nov 26: $VAL Bermuda sanction hearing.
Nov 28 — $ADT go-shop ends (one source says Nov 29; extendable to about Dec 8 for parties that bid). Dec 1: $VAL closing expected.
Dec 6 — $BHF outside date. Dec 11: $UNF earliest possible close, unless the FTC closes its investigation first.
Top 6 by Spread — November 1, 2026
Ticker
Deal
Spread
Key Risk
$IMXI
Western Union / Intermex
74.7%
California DFPI still suspended; Nov 10 outside date, nine days away
$BHF
Aquarian / Brighthouse
59.4%
Delaware hearing notice needed by early November for the Dec 6 date
$UNF
Cintas / UniFirst
27.4%
FTC suit reported but unvoted; nothing closes before Dec 11
$ZIM
Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM
23.3%
Revised application not yet filed; a >10% holder group wants a vote
$NSC
Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern
14.7%
Survived, not approved; STB review runs into 2027
$CART
DoorDash / Instacart
13.1%
Antitrust review of two direct competitors; close late 2027 or early 2028
Top 6 by Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
#
Ticker
Why
Gross Spread
Annualized
#1
$GSAT
Majority consent delivered, HSR and Australia cleared; the FCC order is a slow gate, not a binary one.
9.4%
~14%
#2
$IRDM
Vote done, financing in place, HSR expired; FCC pending. The collar floor is breached, so value moves with RKLB.
8.6%
~13%
#3
$CZR
Vote done; a long but defined path through the FTC Second Request and state gaming approvals.
6.6%
~16%
#4
$SMTI
Vote done; FTC Second Request with an end date of July 2027, extendable. A small stock leg.
6.1%
~9%
#5
$BHF
Delaware scrutiny of Aquarian's funding; the Dec 6 clock needs a hearing notice by early November (short modeled duration).
59.4%
~620%
#6
$UNF
The FTC reportedly indicated it will sue, though later reports say no notice has been given; the market prices a high chance of a block, so size for a binary outcome.
27.4%
~110%
Annualized figures use ArbLens's modeled expected close, not a deal's outside date or next catalyst, and aren't probability-weighted. Changes since Issue #24: $PERF has closed (it was our #1), so $GSAT moves to #1 and $IRDM to #2; $SMTI enters at #4; $BHF moves up to #5; and $UNF drops to #6 after the reported FTC suit. $ATKR, $BZH, $ACA, $PERF, $NATH and $WEAV have closed. $ZIM and $NSC remain excluded, $IMXI stays out until California acts, and $LCII and $CSR are vote situations rather than standard spreads.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Data sourced from public filings and third-party sources. Spreads shown are as of November 1, 2026 and update nightly on arblens.com.