Brighthouse Says It Will Miss Its Deadline. Intermex Has Until Tuesday.
Brighthouse said regulators won’t finish before its Dec 6 outside date, Intermex fell 23% in four sessions ahead of its Nov 10 deadline, and Marvell’s $115 billion Lumentum deal widened to an 18% spread. Seven deals closed, three joined the tracker, and the next two weeks are packed: Montana votes on NorthWestern Tuesday, and a catalyst calendar below runs through Nov 19.
72
Active Deals
1.36%
Median Spread
~$662B
Total Value
This Week’s Top Moves
$BHF64.3%
Brighthouse says it will miss its own deadline
In its Q3 results on Nov 5, Brighthouse said the regulatory review is ongoing and the approvals it needs are not expected in time to complete the merger by the Dec 6 outside date. It said it is in discussions with Aquarian about amending the agreement to extend that date, and that both sides remain committed, with no assurance of an extension or of a completed deal. The remaining approvals are from the insurance regulators in Delaware, New York and Massachusetts. JPMorgan had said on Oct 15 that Delaware would need to file a public-hearing notice by early November to make Dec 6, and none has been reported.
BHF closed the week at $42.58 (a low of $41.23 on Nov 5), a 64% spread against the $70 cash price. An extension at $70 is the bull case. A repriced deal or a walk-away after Dec 6 are the risks, and Aquarian now has leverage on terms: either side can terminate after Dec 6, with fees of $226M (Aquarian) and $143M (Brighthouse). Sixth Street’s Talcott has expressed interest in a deal if this one fails, with a prior offer reported near $52, but that is interest only. We moved our modeled close to Mar 31, 2027, and BHF drops to #6 in the Top 6 below.
Intermex fell 11% on Nov 3 with no company announcement, then another 12% on Nov 5 after Western Union’s Q3 call. It closed Friday at $7.34, down 23% from $9.52 on Nov 2, against the $16.00 cash price. On the call, Western Union’s CEO said it had recently received feedback from California’s DFPI and is working to find an acceptable path forward, and that Nov 10 is the outside date after which either party may terminate. Intermex’s 10-Q also says that date is subject to an automatic extension for certain regulatory approvals; no one has said whether that applies, and a signed amendment would be the cleaner fix. The refiled HSR waiting period is reported to have expired Nov 2, leaving California, whose approval has been suspended since Aug 13, as the open item. Western Union’s shares rose 4% on its results. Reinstatement or an extension could send Intermex toward $16; a walk-away would leave a company whose Q2 revenue fell 18.6%. Fees: Western Union $27.3M, Intermex $19.8M. IMXI stays out of the Top 6: a binary date three days away is not a risk-adjusted setup.
A $115 billion deal whose spread widened because the buyer fell
Marvell agreed on Nov 2 to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock deal at a fixed 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share: $115 billion of enterprise value, or about $1,132 per Lumentum share at the pre-announcement prices, a 23.9% premium. Marvell has fallen 28% since the Oct 30 close on dilution concerns (its share count rises by about 50%) and a regulatory timeline that could stretch into 2028, and Lumentum fell with it, from $684 on Nov 2 to $509.70 on Nov 5 before closing the week at $538.59. At $141.20 for Marvell, the exchange is worth about $635 per Lumentum share, an 18% spread, up from 12.7% on announcement day. The widening is the acquirer’s stock, not deal news: with a fixed ratio and no collar, every $1 in Marvell moves the implied value by $4.50. Marvell holders would own about 67% of the combined company. Per the companies’ schedule, closing is expected in the first half of 2028, with an outside date of Nov 1, 2027 and break fees of $3.2B (regulatory) and $5.8B (a Marvell breach). Marvell reports Q3 around Nov 26 (estimated).
One vote from done, in the state that said no in 2007
Montana regulators vote Tuesday on the $15.4 billion Black Hills-NorthWestern merger (0.98 Black Hills shares per NorthWestern share), the last approval it needs; FERC, Nebraska and South Dakota have signed off. The Montana PSC voted 3-2 on Oct 27 to postpone from that week to weigh an extra condition on NorthWestern’s newly acquired Colstrip share, and the statutory deadline for a final order is Nov 12. PSC staff recommend approval, citing settlements, including one with the Montana Consumer Counsel, and ring-fencing of NorthWestern’s Montana assets. About 30 members of the public urged rejection over data-center and cost concerns, and two intervenors remain opposed. NWE trades about 0.5% below the exchange value, so the market sees approval as near-certain, but Montana’s PSC reportedly rejected an infrastructure buyout 5-0 in 2007, when it was also the last approval outstanding. It is the biggest binary of the week for a deal this close to done.
Nothing new from the FTC, and the stock is down anyway
UNF closed the week near $235, a 39% spread against an implied value of about $327, with no new FTC filing, vote or remedy offer since the Oct 29 follow-up reports. The Oct 27 report said the FTC has indicated it will sue; later reporting said the agency had not told Cintas and was still preparing a staff recommendation. Cintas still targets a 2026 close, though nothing can close before Dec 11 unless the FTC first closes its investigation. A clearance or settlement means about 39% upside; a lawsuit is largely in the price. UNF moves up to #5 in the Top 6 below as BHF’s path gets harder.
RKLB swung 12% down and 15% up in two days. Q3 is Monday.
Rocket Lab fell 12% on Nov 5 in a tech sell-off and rose 15% on Nov 6, closing at $52.70, still below the $67.50 collar floor. Deal value is about $48.08 ($27.00 plus 0.4000 shares), a ~9% spread, and each $1 in RKLB moves it by $0.40. Rocket Lab reports Q3 results after the close on Monday, the same day FCC replies are due. Approvals are clean (shareholders 99.6%, HSR expired, financing done), so the risk is RKLB, not regulators, and it can be hedged. IRDM stays #2.
$FSRL — Colony Bankcorp completed its merger with First Reliance effective Nov 1 (~$163M, creating a ~$5B bank).
$KVUE — Kimberly-Clark completed its ~$48.7B acquisition of Kenvue on Nov 2 ($3.50 cash plus 0.14625 KMB shares), inside the second-half 2026 guidance despite China’s review.
$CBZ — Grant Thornton Advisors completed its $5B acquisition of CBIZ on Nov 2 at $55.00 cash.
$LXP — Brookfield and CPP Investments completed their $5.2B acquisition of LXP Industrial Trust on Nov 2 at $61.20 cash.
$RAMP — Publicis completed its acquisition of LiveRamp on Nov 2 at $38.50 cash, less than two weeks after the FTC accepted a proposed consent order with five years of neutrality and firewall requirements.
$BWMN — Bernhard Capital completed its ~$1B acquisition of Bowman Consulting on Nov 6 at $43.00 cash, two days after the vote.
$ROKU — Fox completed its ~$22B acquisition of Roku on Nov 6. Holders received $95.30 cash plus 0.9799 FOX shares, adjusted from the $96.00 and 0.9693 in the signing documents.
Added Since Issue #25
$LITE — Lumentum → Marvell. All-stock at a fixed 4.500 Marvell shares per share, $115B headline EV. First half of 2028. $PERI — Perion Network → Affle 3i. $11.70 cash (~$420M), a 34.5% premium, with a go-shop to Dec 11. Citibank is providing debt financing and there is no financing condition. Early 2027. $SHLS — Shoals → ARRAY Technologies. All-stock at 1.6931 ARRAY shares (~$1.32B); Shoals holders will own about 65% of the combined company, so Shoals trades slightly above the exchange value (about -1.7%). Q1 2027.
On our watch list but not tracked: EVgo disclosed on Nov 2 an unsolicited, non-binding $2.00 cash proposal from LS Power, which holds about 56% of the voting power. There is no definitive agreement, and LS Power says it won’t proceed without its special committee’s recommendation.
Also Since Issue #25
$DV — stockholders adopted the Nielsen-parent merger on Oct 29 (about 80.7% of outstanding shares voting) at $13.60 cash; the company expects a close by Q1 2027.
$BRZE — Braze’s 8-K confirms Salesforce owes Braze $300M in specified regulatory circumstances and Braze owes $191.39M. The outside date is Oct 19, 2027, with two 90-day extensions.
$HZO — MarineMax confirmed all required regulatory approvals on Oct 31. Shareholders vote Nov 11, and the merger cannot close before Dec 7.
$SSTI — the tender expires Nov 17 and needs more than 50% of shares, with no financing condition. The CVR pays $0.50 only if revenue reaches $73.5M, then $0.05 per added step, up to a $3.00 cap at $87M. The stock trades above the $8.00 cash because the market values the CVR.
$PCRX — Viatris’s $36.50 tender expires Nov 16; the stock is about 0.2% below the offer.
Catalyst Calendar: Nov 9 – 19
Mon Nov 9 — $IRDM: FCC replies due; Rocket Lab Q3 results after the close. $SGRY: Q3 earnings (est.).
Tue Nov 10 — $CSR and IRT: both shareholder votes (CSR 9:30am CT, IRT 10:30am ET). $NWE: Montana PSC decision, the last state approval (final order due by Nov 12). $IMXI: outside date, after which either party may terminate; California approval suspended since Aug 13, HSR reported expired Nov 2.
Wed Nov 11 — $HZO: shareholder vote, 10:00am ET; all regulatory approvals obtained, close expected by year-end. $DDI: Q3 earnings; the $11.25 per ADS take-private proposal is non-binding and under special-committee review.
Fri Nov 13 — $UTZ: shareholder vote ($14.25 cash). $TECH: dividend record date, payable only if the $73 cash deal has not closed by then; close guided to late 2026 or early 2027.
Mon Nov 16 — $PCRX: $36.50 cash tender expires. $PERI: Q3 results (no call, deal pending).
Tue Nov 17 — $D: Virginia SCC evidentiary hearing begins (public-witness hearings Nov 9-10; decision expected Jan 2027). $SSTI: tender expires 11:59pm ET ($8.00 cash plus a CVR of up to $3.00).
Wed Nov 18 — $LCII: shareholder votes on the Patrick merger. $NSC: STB comments, protests and responsive applications due (DOJ and USDOT comments Dec 3; replies Feb 16, 2027). $ZIM: Q3 earnings.
Thu Nov 19 — $EFSI: shareholder votes, both companies, 1:00pm ET; close expected early Q1 2027.
Just beyond: Nov 24, $MG vote and $VAL votes; Nov 26, $VAL sanction hearing; Nov 28, $ADT go-shop ends; Dec 6, $BHF outside date (extension talks); Dec 11, $UNF earliest possible close.
Top 6 by Spread — November 8, 2026
Ticker
Deal
Spread
Key Risk
$IMXI
Western Union / Intermex
118.0%
California approval still suspended; Nov 10 outside date, three days away
$BHF
Aquarian / Brighthouse
64.3%
Company says approvals won't arrive by the Dec 6 outside date; extension talks
$UNF
Cintas / UniFirst
38.8%
FTC suit reported but unvoted; nothing closes before Dec 11
$ZIM
Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM
25.2%
Revised application not confirmed filed; a >10% holder group wants a vote
$NSC
Union Pacific / Norfolk Southern
18.5%
STB opening comments due Nov 18; decision not before late 2027
$LITE
Marvell / Lumentum
18.0%
Fixed-ratio stock deal; value swings with MRVL; H1 2028 close
Top 6 by Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
#
Ticker
Why
Gross Spread
Annualized
#1
$GSAT
Majority consent delivered, HSR and Australia cleared; the FCC order is a slow gate, not a binary one.
6.7%
~11%
#2
$IRDM
Vote done, financing in place, HSR expired; FCC pending. Collar floor breached, so value moves with RKLB (Q3 Monday).
9.2%
~14%
#3
$CZR
Vote done; a long but defined path through the FTC Second Request and state gaming approvals.
6.1%
~15%
#4
$SMTI
Vote done; FTC Second Request with an end date of July 2027, extendable. A small stock leg.
~10%
~15%
#5
$UNF
The FTC reportedly intends to sue, though later reports say no notice has been given; size for a binary outcome.
38.8%
~170%
#6
$BHF
Approvals won't arrive by Dec 6; extension talks hand Aquarian leverage on price. Size for binary risk.
64.3%
~165%
Annualized figures use ArbLens's modeled expected close, not a deal's outside date or next catalyst, and aren't probability-weighted. Changes since Issue #25: $UNF moves up to #5 and $BHF down to #6 after Brighthouse said approvals won't arrive before Dec 6, and BHF's modeled close moved to Mar 31, 2027. $FSRL, $KVUE, $CBZ, $LXP, $RAMP, $BWMN and $ROKU have closed. $IMXI stays out (a binary Nov 10 date), $ZIM and $NSC remain excluded, $LCII and $CSR are vote situations, and $LITE is excluded for its H1 2028 timeline and acquirer-stock volatility.
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For informational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice. Merger arbitrage involves significant risk including deal failure and loss of capital. Data sourced from public filings and third-party sources. Spreads shown are as of November 6-8, 2026 and update nightly on arblens.com.